2024 elections, BJP and Shakuni's dice

Shakuni (Mahabharata) was a good player of the game of dice (Pachisi / Ludo) but he still used a loaded dice to win the games against the Pandavas to make double sure he won. Something akin to that is happening in India's general election 2024. The ruling BJP is widely tipped to comfortably win the 2024 General Election, but that hasn't stopped it from playing dirty, how is their loaded dice working this election?

1) Can an impartial ED please stand up! please stand up!

This isn't inherently bad for the country, going after corruption as opposed to the political quid pro quo (I wont target you, you don't target me) is a great change. But, the timing and result of the said actions are highly circumspect.

The timing is impeccable, even King Kohli cannot hit a sweeter timed cover drive. Weeks before the general election the Congress party gets its accounts frozen, AAP and BRS leaders get ED summons and are jailed. Moreover this is not a single occurrence, it has been happening before every major political event. Looks like the ED has synchronised their watches with the needs of the BJP. 

Is hard to believe that 95% of the corrupt people in India are from the opposition parties, harder to believe that of 25 politicians against whom cases were filed, 23 were later found clean after they joined the BJP. Cases are filed against influential opposition leaders who are either forced to support the BJP or languish in jails until they become irrelevant. 

The sad truth is money wins elections in India. One needs to spend money to fight, leave alone win elections. Tying up opposition funds in litigation is another sure shot way to handicap the opposition parties. While the BJP purchases a record number of ads, generates thousands of viral messages and employs helicopters to ferry their leaders across the country, the opposition is tied up in blocked funds and incarcerated leaders. 

That being said its welcome that some corruption is being targeted, albeit selectively, hopefully when a different party comes to power 95% of the BJP will be targeted. At the least a swift resolution of the cases is the need of the hour.

2) Always stretch like our poll schedule

One cannot comprehend why India would need 44 days to conduct elections. Agreed, India is a vast country, but 44 days, event 1 day per state is 28 days. This poll schedule maximises the star power of Modi, allowing him to criss cross the country to leave his imprint on every possible constituency. This election has become a Modi vs every other opposition candidate. 

The Election Commission decrees 48 hours before the actual election as silence period where candidates cannot campaign but other constituencies (for other 42 days) are still fair game. Campaign rallies and speeches in other constituencies will be reported by the news media and consumed by the public in the garb of news, defeating the concept of the silence period. This tactic combined with the extra money with the BJP and control over the media gives another major advantage to the BJP.

The stretched poll schedule also blurs the issues for the election, the BJP can ramp up hindutva in the north and some other issue in the south using its superior resources. 

3) Every inch counts

Every election be it the mayoral elections in Chandigarh or the Rajya Sabha elections in a state has been aggressively manoeuvred by the BJP to put more of its personnel in decision making roles. Mayors for example influence a lot of issues during election time (say getting approval for a rally) and the BJP will have control over these mayors and other officials giving them undue advantage come election time. The BJP hasn't shied either from leaning on officials where and when required, be it the CBI, ED, or other government apparatus. This is pretty normal in India, you can call it the incumbent perks, but its another thing that tilts the election in its favour.

4) Dead alone or alive with me

The BJP has fielded more than 35% of its candidates from people who have defected from other parties. A strong candidate defecting from the opposition is a double shot in the arm, the opposition loses and the BJP gains. People defecting is not new but the scale of defections is unprecedented. It looks like the BJP has through various means, carrot and stick, picked the most winnable candidates from all parties and fielded them as its own. 

5) Follow the money

Sigh! where does one even start with Electoral Bonds, that stink has become so evident that people sigh and just ignore it. The BJP has amassed huge sums of money from various corporations for various quid pro quos, much more than all the other political parties combined. How the money will be used need not be left for imagination, India is a country where money wins elections. Don't blame the player, blame the game one can say, but the opacity of these electoral bonds throws a huge shadow on the legality of the money collected. The BJP is going to war with a war chest that in unparalleled in the history of India, in an country where money wins elections and there are no limits on party spending, the un-level field is almost laughable.

6) If a tree falls and nobody reported it, did it actually fall

There is hardly any media channel left which can boast of a balanced coverage. One can notice a tangible shift towards the government in most channels. Dissenting channels have been shackled by government agencies. The coverage people see is biased and insufficient, people cannot make an informed choice because the information isn't there. Take the Supreme Court order to reveal the details of the electoral bonds, it was child's play after that to extrapolate which companies gave money to which political party and for what benefit and who actually paid for that donation, but has there been one bit of news with that information? No, zilch, nada nothing, zero. Why is the media suddenly silent on such a big issue?

Call to arms

All may be fair in love, war and elections, but, if we do not have fair elections how is our democracy different from China's or Russia's. This precedent the BJP has set is un-healthy. Voting against the BJP in spite is not going to help, because, the next victor is going to follow the same blueprint. What we need to do is implement checks and balances, strengthen our institutions, educate the voters, to prevent this from happening again.  

ICICI Securities Delisting Con

 ICICI bank delisted its subsidiary ICICI Securities at a remarkably lower valuation benefiting itself at the cost of the minority investors. I will not go into the valuation part, thats been amply covered by other more capable people (e.g. finshots). Rather, I will try unmask the duplicity of the big institutional investors who supported the delisting.

One of the biggest voters for the proposal was Norges Bank Investment Management, now why would they vote for something that gave them less money for their ICICI Securities investment, unless, unless they also held shares in ICIC Bank, bingo, thats what it was, they have 8,947,781,537 invested in ICICI Bank vs 905,526,291 in ICICI Securities, so they figure they will make more money if their larger investment gets something cheap at the cost of their smaller investment. I am pretty sure this is the case with all other institutional investors who voted for the proposal.

One more instance where the stock market is rigged to favour the big guys. Does SEBI care, obviously not as they seem to have thrown all other rules out of the window for this de-listing.

Mangoes in march

 It’s still March goddamnit! They are already here, temptation thou kicks above the belt, right a the gut. Those golden blobs started showing up at the market early March, no, not gold, though they do cost as much as gold. I am taking about mangoes, the king of fruits, the raison d’existence. Its cruel actually, as a purist I don’t touch mangoes before sometime in April, but this March they are already showing up all over, and boxes of them and those boxes keep disappearing creating a FOMO feeling I haven’t experienced since the dot com bust. What if they get over? Really, who are these people eating mangoes in March, are they going to eat up all the mangoes? Will there be any left? My fruit supplier keeps offering me mangoes, he knows me well, having bought a gazillion mangoes from him the past 10 years. I think he is a sadist though, enjoying every ounce of my discomfort as I refuse, shift my eyes to the watermelon and grapes to whom March belongs.The pain inside amplified by fear, mixed with jealousy and anger, now that’s not what mangoes should evoke in a person.

I have been following the mangoes since the start of the year. No rains in spring, good, keeps the flowers healthy, no insect attacks, awesome, hot summers, good, the perfect storm for tasty mangoes. I also follow the mango trees in Lal Bagh every day, fresh leaves check, flowers check, little mangoes check, growing bigger every day check, this season was supposed to be the best mango season ever.

But when is it the right time to eat the first mango of the season, April 1, March 31, why not March 29? If 29 is ok, then 28 whats in a day? They say the first mango sets the tone for the season and I would hate to have a sour start to my mango campaign. But the mangoes are disappearing, it’s not enough that the best mangoes get exported out of the country my fellow Indians are devouring them. India should ban mango exports, my vote this election is for the party that promises just that, there just aren’t enough mangoes for our own people.

Should I care if they have been artificially ripened, I mean what is artificial? Does the mango care? Should I? I keep asking myself these existential questions. How about I dunk them in our rice bin, wrap them in newspapers and cardboard, sing them lullabies, whatever it takes. Will my soul know that the offering has been tampered with. I find myself asking ChatGPT if it’s ok to eat mangoes in March? Oh god, is the rest of march going to be this insufferable?

One Nation One Election

Right Raja

One word cost, better two, cost and efficiency, slam dunk case. Having simultaneous elections would be a huge cost reduction, more important, it prevents government gridlock every time the model code of conduct goes into effect for every election in every state. The people are savvy enough to differentiate state and central issues and vote accordingly, why fear. The government can focus on governance instead of preparing for elections at so many different times. Research shows that a single election also improves vote turnout, and did I say cost, cost of updating electoral rolls, cost of personnel deployment, expenses of political parties, cost of holidays for voting, savings everywhere. Whats not to love about this endeavour.

Left Rani

Cost, cuts both ways, voting machines are currently reused across elections, multiple times, if elections are held simultaneously, the Election Commission will have to procure new voting machinery which is  going to be a huge one time expense. Moreover, the life of a voting machine is 15 years, simultaneous elections would mean all the equipment would have to be replaced every 3 elections which would further escalate costs.

Elections actually give a huge boost to our domestic GDP. The economic activity generated from activities like rallies, posters, meetings and advertisements contributes positively to our economy. The black money held by the politicians and their parties finds a way back to the people and into the real economy, thats not a bad bonus either. 

If the underlying issue is policy paralysis during elections, a straightforward approach would be to remove the code of conduct with respect to policies, the same people, discerning enough to differentiate  state and central issues are smart enough to understand that pre-election policies are just tactical moves before the elections and have no lasting impact on governance. Moreover, incumbent parties have always skirted this issue through announcements shortly before the moral code of conduct comes into effect, lets rip this bandaid off. If we intend to solve this particular issue here is a simpler solution.

All other issues such as voter turnout, electoral roll updation, holidays are minor gains which would be better tackled by alternative measures, we don't need simultaneous elections for that.

Mantri's Observations

Indira Gandhi moved away from One Nation One Election because the Congress was losing national elections as people were prioritising state issues. The BJP believes that it has cracked the national issues puzzle and can influence people the other way round to favour it in state elections. This is a double edged sword, nobody actually knows how this will cut.

The present BJP is characterised by a strong central leadership with weak state leaders, hence they keep losing elections to strong state-level leaders. The BJP is now hoping that the strong central leadership will rub off on the state elections and help them garner more state victories. Again, nobody knows how this will play out post Modi.

The BJP also wants to bring down the semblance of the recently forged opposition unity. It is easy for disparate parties to cobble together a national alliance when they don't have to worry about state elections. Once state elections come by, they can go back to their no holds barred attacks on each other. Simultaneous election will seriously dent opposition unity as they cannot maintain an united front nationally and fight each other at the state level. This will make it more likely that the united front will fall apart increasing the chances of a BJP victory everywhere.

In Conclusion, the cost savings will not be substantial, policy paralysis can be addressed and so the colossal effort of simultaneous elections will not be worth it . There are bigger and more important fish to fry, it might be worthwhile to take a look at Adarsh's thoughts regarding the same from 2019: Electoral Reforms for a new India.

Resolving Issue vs Fixing Bug

 

I was researching Akshaya Patra (don't ask why), no not the organisation, rather, the original Akshaya Patra Draupadi had, to feed her family and their visitors during their sojourn in the forrest, an ephiphany struck me and I realised the difference between fixing a bug and resolving an issue. 

The story goes, Draupadi was granted the Akshaya Patra to feed her family and the multitude of visitors who (without caring for a queen who might have never cooked in her life, trying to manage in a forrest) visited the Pandavas while (I cannot corroborate this) none of the boys helped her cook (maybe Bhima did, he knew his food). This vessel had a bug though, it stopped working for the day once Draupadi ate (talk of misogamy, requiring that she ate last). What was the poor woman to do if Bhima came back at 3pm asking for a snack, tell him to go pick a berry, well that's not our issue though.

Once sage Durvasa comes to visit the Pandavas, and asks to be fed with all his disciples, he conveniently times his entry to just after Draupadi had eaten, so now the bug became a production issue. Draupadi desperately calls Krishna, the developer, the problem solver, the tester, the everything, he arrives promptly, and understands the issue, but asks first for some food (maybe he wanted to test if the bug really exists) to satiate him, all he finds is a morsel of rice and a small piece of vegetable in the dish, Krishna maha prabhu eats that and exclaims "I am full, I cannot eat another morsel" now Sri Krishna is the supreme being, Lord Vishnu incarnate, when he says he is full, every being in the entire universe, leave alone earth becomes satiated (imagine what that could do to the world hunger index). Now the sage and his disciples a find themselves in a pickle, they had asked to be fed, but cannot eat another morsel and so rather than apologise, ask for a doggy bag, slink away, Jai Shri Krishna issue resolved.

Now this is an example of where the issue gets resolved, but the bug does not get fixed.

P.S. The Akshaya Patra was supposed to stop working once the 14 years of exile ended, that means the bug disappeared after 14 years of its creation.

Inflation, is raising rates the wrong response?

 Central banks world over are raising interests rates to reign in inflation (another reason perhaps is to keep parity with the dollar but thats a whole different mess). Which inflation are they trying to reign in? There is energy inflation (petrol, gas), there is food inflation, there is inflation in consumer goods (cell phones, vehicles, washing machines etc) and then there is inflation in manufacturing commodities (iron zinc copper etc). I think the central banks are foolish to apply the same balm to ease all the pains.

The general accepted theory is that there is inflation when there is more money chasing less goods, so let us decrease the money in circulation, issue solved. This works for consumer goods and commodities like a charm, but playing the same game with food is a dangerous. The poorer sections of the society are gut punched, pun intended, lessened economic activity reduces their income, there is a decrease in food production hence less food, in the medium run it is a vicious double punch.

What the banks and governments ought to be doing is increasing food supply, dipping into their stocks, meanwhile going all out to increase food production, loans to farmers, increasing arable land, infrastructure for the food chain (from sowing to storage and distribution) enabling investments not restricting them. Increasing food supply will make life easier for the people who need help the most.

There has always been two ways to fight inflation, you tighten the supply of money or increase the supply of goods, the resent reaction is I guess 100 years of economic theory at work, but when it comes to food, I dont think this is the right strategy. This works for the rich, for those who can wether the pain, but not for the poor, who will see have to endure some very bleak times, I believe that government is there to protect the weak more than anything else.

They also have the reason for inflation all messed up. All the countries increased money supply post COVID, yes but, is that the only reason? The present bout of inflation is also due to supply chain constraints, the war in Ukraine, lock downs in China that wont be alleviated a bit from the rise in interest rates, in fact it is going to make things worse. Central banks are using the same stick dis-regarding the cause of the inflation how is that going to help, the world has changed so should their theories.

What we learnt from Ukraine

 

1) The United Nations is an useless organization

The UN can only bully small nations with its money and peace keeping forces, it is but a tool of the 5 permanent members of the security council. If the other countries want any say in world politics they should get together and form their own organization where all nations are equal.

2) Countries do what they want

Countries such as USA, China, Russia do what ever they want without any ramifications. Attack Iraq for non existent weapons, no problem, annex Crimea no problem, genocide in Xinjiang absolutely no problem. They are not the leaders the world can depend on, they will always do what is in their best interests, take along countries that are in their best interests and ditch those they that are not.

3) Never give up your weapons, and of course get your own nuclear weapons.

You think Russia would have attacked Ukraine if Ukraine had held on to its nuclear weapons? I am sure Ukraine got something when it gave up its nuclear arsenal, but in the long run that turned out to be a colossal mistake. This is a lesson for every country like North Korea and Iran. Get your nuclear weapons, get them now, you will get your respect.

4) Assurances / Treaties mean nothing

Ukraine signed the The Budapest Memorandum with Russia and USA, assuring them security, non aggression and a promise of help. Absolutely nothing has come off it, Russia actually attacked Ukraine and the best the USA has done is slap a few banks and rich Russians on the wrist. I guess no treaty is safe.

5) Cyber warfare is a valid response.

The internet is truly a level playing field, even a small country can hold a big country ransom if it can figure out a way to cripple that country, hack into its electrical grid, delete its financial data, shut down its airports, stop its traffic, anything that depends on connectivity. Every country, even if it doesn't spend on defence should spend on a cyber army to attack and defend itself. It is cheap it is effective and it is devastating.

6) Do not expect help

Every country needs to understand that when push comes to shove, they will be alone, they will have to fight for themselves. Every other country will prioritise its economy, soldiers and priorities over anything else. There will be talk before an after, but during the crisis prepare to stand alone.