Friday, July 29, 2022

Inflation, is raising rates the wrong response?

 Central banks world over are raising interests rates to reign in inflation (another reason perhaps is to keep parity with the dollar but thats a whole different mess). Which inflation are they trying to reign in? There is energy inflation (petrol, gas), there is food inflation, there is inflation in consumer goods (cell phones, vehicles, washing machines etc) and then there is inflation in manufacturing commodities (iron zinc copper etc). I think the central banks are foolish to apply the same balm to ease all the pains.

The general accepted theory is that there is inflation when there is more money chasing less goods, so let us decrease the money in circulation, issue solved. This works for consumer goods and commodities like a charm, but playing the same game with food is a dangerous. The poorer sections of the society are gut punched, pun intended, lessened economic activity reduces their income, there is a decrease in food production hence less food, in the medium run it is a vicious double punch.

What the banks and governments ought to be doing is increasing food supply, dipping into their stocks, meanwhile going all out to increase food production, loans to farmers, increasing arable land, infrastructure for the food chain (from sowing to storage and distribution) enabling investments not restricting them. Increasing food supply will make life easier for the people who need help the most.

There has always been two ways to fight inflation, you tighten the supply of money or increase the supply of goods, the resent reaction is I guess 100 years of economic theory at work, but when it comes to food, I dont think this is the right strategy. This works for the rich, for those who can wether the pain, but not for the poor, who will see have to endure some very bleak times, I believe that government is there to protect the weak more than anything else.

They also have the reason for inflation all messed up. All the countries increased money supply post COVID, yes but, is that the only reason? The present bout of inflation is also due to supply chain constraints, the war in Ukraine, lock downs in China that wont be alleviated a bit from the rise in interest rates, in fact it is going to make things worse. Central banks are using the same stick dis-regarding the cause of the inflation how is that going to help, the world has changed so should their theories.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Vivek Nekkanty said...

1. In some cases, the price hikes are a result of lack of supply (production losses caused over the last 2 years) but not higher demand caused by consumption. What we need is increased capacity and manpower to replenish stock. Which can be supplied with investment. Higher rates takes that away.
2. Part of the inflation is caused by all the free money that was printed and distributed in the US. People staying home worked on projects driving up material costs.
3. In hindsight, the feds should have increased the interest rates a year ago gradually and to avoid the current rapid increases.

July 29, 2022  

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