2024 elections, BJP and Shakuni's dice

Shakuni (Mahabharata) was a good player of the game of dice (Pachisi / Ludo) but he still used a loaded dice to win the games against the Pandavas to make double sure he won. Something akin to that is happening in India's general election 2024. The ruling BJP is widely tipped to comfortably win the 2024 General Election, but that hasn't stopped it from playing dirty, how is their loaded dice working this election?

1) Can an impartial ED please stand up! please stand up!

This isn't inherently bad for the country, going after corruption as opposed to the political quid pro quo (I wont target you, you don't target me) is a great change. But, the timing and result of the said actions are highly circumspect.

The timing is impeccable, even King Kohli cannot hit a sweeter timed cover drive. Weeks before the general election the Congress party gets its accounts frozen, AAP and BRS leaders get ED summons and are jailed. Moreover this is not a single occurrence, it has been happening before every major political event. Looks like the ED has synchronised their watches with the needs of the BJP. 

Is hard to believe that 95% of the corrupt people in India are from the opposition parties, harder to believe that of 25 politicians against whom cases were filed, 23 were later found clean after they joined the BJP. Cases are filed against influential opposition leaders who are either forced to support the BJP or languish in jails until they become irrelevant. 

The sad truth is money wins elections in India. One needs to spend money to fight, leave alone win elections. Tying up opposition funds in litigation is another sure shot way to handicap the opposition parties. While the BJP purchases a record number of ads, generates thousands of viral messages and employs helicopters to ferry their leaders across the country, the opposition is tied up in blocked funds and incarcerated leaders. 

That being said its welcome that some corruption is being targeted, albeit selectively, hopefully when a different party comes to power 95% of the BJP will be targeted. At the least a swift resolution of the cases is the need of the hour.

2) Always stretch like our poll schedule

One cannot comprehend why India would need 44 days to conduct elections. Agreed, India is a vast country, but 44 days, event 1 day per state is 28 days. This poll schedule maximises the star power of Modi, allowing him to criss cross the country to leave his imprint on every possible constituency. This election has become a Modi vs every other opposition candidate. 

The Election Commission decrees 48 hours before the actual election as silence period where candidates cannot campaign but other constituencies (for other 42 days) are still fair game. Campaign rallies and speeches in other constituencies will be reported by the news media and consumed by the public in the garb of news, defeating the concept of the silence period. This tactic combined with the extra money with the BJP and control over the media gives another major advantage to the BJP.

The stretched poll schedule also blurs the issues for the election, the BJP can ramp up hindutva in the north and some other issue in the south using its superior resources. 

3) Every inch counts

Every election be it the mayoral elections in Chandigarh or the Rajya Sabha elections in a state has been aggressively manoeuvred by the BJP to put more of its personnel in decision making roles. Mayors for example influence a lot of issues during election time (say getting approval for a rally) and the BJP will have control over these mayors and other officials giving them undue advantage come election time. The BJP hasn't shied either from leaning on officials where and when required, be it the CBI, ED, or other government apparatus. This is pretty normal in India, you can call it the incumbent perks, but its another thing that tilts the election in its favour.

4) Dead alone or alive with me

The BJP has fielded more than 35% of its candidates from people who have defected from other parties. A strong candidate defecting from the opposition is a double shot in the arm, the opposition loses and the BJP gains. People defecting is not new but the scale of defections is unprecedented. It looks like the BJP has through various means, carrot and stick, picked the most winnable candidates from all parties and fielded them as its own. 

5) Follow the money

Sigh! where does one even start with Electoral Bonds, that stink has become so evident that people sigh and just ignore it. The BJP has amassed huge sums of money from various corporations for various quid pro quos, much more than all the other political parties combined. How the money will be used need not be left for imagination, India is a country where money wins elections. Don't blame the player, blame the game one can say, but the opacity of these electoral bonds throws a huge shadow on the legality of the money collected. The BJP is going to war with a war chest that in unparalleled in the history of India, in an country where money wins elections and there are no limits on party spending, the un-level field is almost laughable.

6) If a tree falls and nobody reported it, did it actually fall

There is hardly any media channel left which can boast of a balanced coverage. One can notice a tangible shift towards the government in most channels. Dissenting channels have been shackled by government agencies. The coverage people see is biased and insufficient, people cannot make an informed choice because the information isn't there. Take the Supreme Court order to reveal the details of the electoral bonds, it was child's play after that to extrapolate which companies gave money to which political party and for what benefit and who actually paid for that donation, but has there been one bit of news with that information? No, zilch, nada nothing, zero. Why is the media suddenly silent on such a big issue?

Call to arms

All may be fair in love, war and elections, but, if we do not have fair elections how is our democracy different from China's or Russia's. This precedent the BJP has set is un-healthy. Voting against the BJP in spite is not going to help, because, the next victor is going to follow the same blueprint. What we need to do is implement checks and balances, strengthen our institutions, educate the voters, to prevent this from happening again.  

ICICI Securities Delisting Con

 ICICI bank delisted its subsidiary ICICI Securities at a remarkably lower valuation benefiting itself at the cost of the minority investors. I will not go into the valuation part, thats been amply covered by other more capable people (e.g. finshots). Rather, I will try unmask the duplicity of the big institutional investors who supported the delisting.

One of the biggest voters for the proposal was Norges Bank Investment Management, now why would they vote for something that gave them less money for their ICICI Securities investment, unless, unless they also held shares in ICIC Bank, bingo, thats what it was, they have 8,947,781,537 invested in ICICI Bank vs 905,526,291 in ICICI Securities, so they figure they will make more money if their larger investment gets something cheap at the cost of their smaller investment. I am pretty sure this is the case with all other institutional investors who voted for the proposal.

One more instance where the stock market is rigged to favour the big guys. Does SEBI care, obviously not as they seem to have thrown all other rules out of the window for this de-listing.