Ukraine, where does it go from here

 

Ukraine is like a boxer trapped against the ropes, holding the line but unable to step away, the punches keep coming, some it blocks, some it absorbs, all of them hurt. It does land a few punches of its own, but the opponent is not stepping back, there is no referee there is no whistle, the fight drags on, no way out, only the will to endure and the hope for a miracle. This cannot go on.

How did it get there, one could point to the folly of the Budapest Memorandum, the NATO membership dance, Russian territorial ambitions or Ukraine getting caught up as a proxy for the west east conflict. We cannot though shy away from the fact that Ukraine made its bed by trusting the West, not investing in its security and becoming a pawn in the game of international politics. Either way, whats done is done. The only way is forward.

Where do we go from here, the US has shifted its priorities, Europe is unable/unwilling to fully commit, the rest of the world does not care enough and Russia has no incentive to change course. The only people truly suffering are the people of Ukraine. This has to end.

Ukraine needs to reset and start afresh. Similar to what India did in its war with China in 1962. India lost the war, lost respect, lost people and lost territory.  The world did not care, India learnt its costly lesson. India will never get anything back from losses of the 1962 war with China, at least now now, but as a nation we have moved forward, the wounds still hurt, but something like that will never happen again. Today no country will mess with India and thats the way forward. India remembers the humiliation, but revenge is still far away, it will come.

Ukraine should directly engage with Russia, give what ever guarantees it needs to give for now, screw NATO, screw USA, screw every other stake holder, the war needs to end, give the mineral rights to Russia, China or who ever promises the most and take the loss. Set a base from where they can build an Ukraine for the future. 

Honour your fallen, build a memorial for all the dead, more so as a reminder of what will happen if Ukraine cannot learn from its mistakes, let those memorials shape every decision going forward. Build your military, get nuclear weapons, arm your forces covertly at first overtly later,  make sure what happened will never happen again.

Understand that international agreements do not mean a thing, you can sign the NPT, get nuclear weapons and sign again from a position of power, you can grant mineral rights and then take it back, you can give up territory and then win it back when your enemy is weaker or you are stronger. Do all that you need to, to get to a position of strength, and that will only happen after a reset. Sign all the agreements right now, anything to get you your peace and a chance to rebuild, your time will come, definitely not today, maybe not even 5 years from now, but as long as the people remember, the nation remembers, your time will come. For now, take the loss, learn, re-build and do not forget.

The stupid neither learn nor forget; the naive learn and forget; the wise learn but do not forget.